[I trimmed and restated the 9200 word original article down to about 1750 words for this Abridged version. This version contains slightly different, more directly stated prose and retains some of the visuals.
An Abridged version accompanies every major feature article but is no substitute. The Abridged version is provided at the request of a significant portion of readership. I hope this version is clear for those that requested it.
I will say in cutting 4 of every 5 words, most of the personality and some arguments are necessarily missing. As a result, I highly recommend reading the main article when one has the time to do so.
Thank you!]
Where are we in the capital cycle?
The blue bars below represent the percentage of net capital investment by S&P 500 companies against Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States.
The chart shows clearly that market peaks happened before peaks in net investment.
We are near one of those moments again.
In Part IV, we looked at $3 trillion in aggregate purchase commitments, future leases and guarantees backing third-party debt, and various off-balance sheet potential liabilities, all pointing toward a couple more years of record investment AI data centers.
Recent earnings reports, filings and conference calls provide clues as to how stressed, or not, each hyperscaler really is.
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