MOU Weekly
"Plan Before You Act" is a top influencer on the Tiger Community, boasting nearly 60,000 followers both domestically and internationally. He is the author of the bestselling book "Investing for Pleasure." Fin++, the official website and app of "Caijiajia," is the only platform officially operated by "Plan Before You Act," adhering to the mission of "helping ordinary investors achieve stable returns" and striving to "become the preferred investment coach for ordinary investors," guiding everyone to plan carefully before acting and find joy in investing.
[MOU Weekly] The Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Can't Produce Memory Modules (Week 38 of 2026 | Issue No. 288)
This week, three things have increased in price. The first is money. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, passing the vote 12 to 0, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The second is memory. According to DigiTimes, Apple has agreed to purchase DRAM at nearly $2 per GB and NAND at $0.33 per GB starting in the first quarter of next year, which is 30% to 40% more expensive than in the third quarter of this year. This is the buyer with the strongest bargaining power in the world. The third is storage stocks. SanDisk rose 11% in a single day on Friday, while Micron increased by 9.6% over two days. According to textbooks, when interest rates rise, stocks with high Beta should be the first to fall; however, the results have been the opposite. In this issue, we will examine these three price tags, one by one.
[MOU Weekly] The Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Can't Produce Memory Modules (Week 38 of 2026 | Issue No. 288)
This week, three things have increased in price. The first is money. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, passing the vote 12 to 0, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The second is memory. According to DigiTimes, Apple has agreed to purchase DRAM at nearly $2 per GB and NAND at $0.33 per GB starting in the first quarter of next year, which is 30% to 40% more expensive than in the third quarter of this year. This is the buyer with the strongest bargaining power in the world. The third is storage stocks. SanDisk rose 11% in a single day on Friday, while Micron increased by 9.6% over two days. According to textbooks, when interest rates rise, stocks with high Beta should be the first to fall; however, the results have been the opposite. In this issue, we will examine these three price tags, one by one.
[MOU Weekly] Earning a little less is a cost, losing a bit more is an accident (Week 37 of 2026 | Issue 287)
In the week of December 17, 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, and Friday was quadruple witching day, mirroring the arrangement of the following week. That rate hike was also already priced in, with the market pricing in a probability of over 70% before the meeting. As a result, the S&P 500 fell 7.05% for the week, and the Nasdaq dropped 8.36%, marking the worst week since 2011.
[MOU Weekly] Where Did the Money Come From to Buy Micron at $1000 (Week 36 of 2026 | Issue 286)
Looking at this chart, most people's first reaction is: Micron has risen again. That's right, on September 4, Micron closed at 1016, up 6.1% for the day. However, this money has little to do with whether the stock price goes up or down. The Micron stock in this account has a cost basis of 1000, and the current price is 1016, meaning the stock price has only moved 1.6% over four months. Over the four months, the account shows a cumulative profit and loss of $101,585 for Micron, with the stock earning $4,680 and options earning $96,905. 95% of the money comes from selling volatility, not from the stock price.
[MOU Weekly] Stop guessing, this is exactly what Warsh wants to say (Week 35 of 2026 | Issue 285)
On Saturday, I shared the Chinese and English version of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole in the group and suggested everyone read the original text. One group member replied: "We need to see how Wall Street understands it, not how we understand it." This statement sounds quite clever; the market is indeed determined by pricing. However, it precisely contradicts the point of this speech. Today, we'll start from this statement because the underlying mindset it represents is exactly what Warsh dedicated an entire section to criticize in this speech.
[MOU Weekly] Will the U.S. National Debt Default? (Week 34 of 2026 | Issue No. 284)
On August 15, 1971, Nixon held a closed-door meeting at Camp David for an entire weekend, and on Sunday night announced to the nation: the dollar was no longer pegged to gold. In the years leading up to that, central banks around the world lined up to exchange dollars for gold from the United States, with France even sending warships to transport it. The whole world was waiting for a grand show of "America can't pay its debts." In the end, that show never happened; instead, another one took its place. Why tell this old story? Because 55 years later, in this week, with $40 trillion in national debt, long-term interest rates reaching a 19-year high, and the Treasury personally stepping in to buy bonds, the public has begun counting down to the same event. This issue lays out the accounts to see why Wall Street is paying in real money.
[MOU Weekly] All-in AI, Combining Software and Hardware (Week 33 of 2026 | Issue 283)
In 1882, Edison lit up the first commercial power station on Pearl Street in Manhattan. The first to make money were not those using electricity, but those manufacturing generators and pulling copper wire. However, electricity truly changed the world not because of the light bulb, but because of the electric motor: when factories replaced steam engines with electric motors, productivity barely increased in the first twenty years, until engineers realized that electric motors could be made smaller and installed in every machine, leading to the birth of the assembly line, and productivity skyrocketed in the 1920s. From Pearl Street to the assembly line, electricity took forty years, divided into three stages: first, those generating power made money, then the transmission network made money, and finally, those putting electricity into every machine took the largest share of profits. Why tell this old story? Because in this issue, I want to lay out my current holdings: why I am fully invested in AI, how I am layering my investments, and how big money is positioning itself during this week's 13F season. The core judgment can be summed up in one sentence: AI is completing in five years the journey that electricity took forty years.
[MOU Weekly] The Worst Non-Farm Payrolls, the Best Earnings Reports, Which Should We Trust? (Week 32 of 2026 | Issue No. 281)
In 1811, hosiery workers in Nottingham, England, stormed into factories, wielding hammers to smash machines. The machines had taken away their livelihoods, and this group later came to be known as Luddites. The workers were not mistaken about the facts; the positions of hand weavers were indeed disappearing. However, smashing machines could not stop the machines. In the following twenty years, the number of weavers decreased, while the production of British cotton textiles multiplied several times: machines allowed one worker to replace dozens of people, and the cost and price of cloth fell sharply, leading to a flood of orders from around the world into Britain. Jobs were disappearing, while output and profits were surging; for the first time in history, these two phenomena occurred simultaneously at the turning point where machines replaced human labor. This week, the U.S. economy is showing the same hand.
[MOU Weekly] Cheapness is Not Your Reason to Buy (Week 31 of 2026 | Issue No. 281)
In 1992, the stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen listed a strange type of stock: B shares. The same company, the same equity, the same dividends, yet there were two prices. A shares were denominated in RMB and sold only to domestic investors; B shares were priced in USD or HKD and sold only to foreign investors. Two groups of buyers, separated by a wall of foreign exchange controls, each bought their own. The result was: same stock, same rights, but B shares traded at a discount of 30% to 50% compared to A shares for many years. It wasn't that the company was worse; it was purely because the pool of money that could buy B shares and the pool of money that could buy A shares were not interchangeable. This discount lasted for nearly a decade, until in 2001, regulators allowed domestic residents to use foreign exchange to buy B shares, connecting the two pools and causing the price gap to begin to narrow. Why tell this old story? Because this week, a picture has been circulating in my social circle: Hong Kong semiconductor stocks are significantly cheaper than A shares, with the SMIC AH price ratio at 2.29 and Hua Hong at 2.12, with terms like "bargain" and "picking up cheap" trending. What I learned from the B shares lesson is that price differences are determined by who can buy, not by value. A bargain that you cannot access can remain cheap for many years.
[MOU Weekly] Oil prices rise by 35%, this market has already increased by 1900% (Week 30 of 2026 | Issue No. 280)
On July 24, 1987, exactly 39 years ago this week, the first convoy escorted by the U.S. Navy's "Operation Earnest Will" entered the Persian Gulf. The Kuwaiti supertanker "Bridgeton," flying the Stars and Stripes, collided with an Iranian mine under the tight protection of three warships. The ship did not sink, but the next scene was recorded in naval history: the three escort warships quickly repositioned themselves behind the tanker. Because the 400,000-ton tanker could withstand explosions better than the warships, the escorted vessels cleared the way for their protectors. An old mine costing a few thousand dollars forced the world's number one navy to change formation in public. Why tell this old story? Because 39 years later this week, the same strait, the same mines, and the same asymmetry are replaying. Brent has reached $100, and many friends are watching the K-line and asking: Has the oil price peaked? Can we still chase it? Today, I want to show you another list first: the insurance policy. In war, the seller of insurance is always more honest than those holding futures contracts.
[MOU Weekly] Has the Storage Decline Reached Its End? (Week 29 of 2026 | Issue 279)
In 1984, DRAM prices fell by 70% within a year. Under enormous losses, Intel made the bold decision to exit the storage business it had invented, leaving behind the famous phrase from Grove, "crossing the valley of death." Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, a South Korean company that had only been in the industry for a few years doubled down, expanding production against the tide during the industry's darkest hour — it was Samsung. The rest of the story is well-known: Japanese manufacturers were driven out, and Samsung ascended to the throne of memory, holding it for forty years.
"Plan Before You Act" is a top influencer on the Tiger Community, boasting nearly 60,000 followers both domestically and internationally. He is the author of the bestselling book "Investing for Pleasure." Fin++, the official website and app of "Caijiajia," is the only platform officially operated by "Plan Before You Act," adhering to the mission of "helping ordinary investors achieve stable returns" and striving to "become the preferred investment coach for ordinary investors," guiding everyone to plan carefully before acting and find joy in investing.