MOU Weekly
"Plan Before You Act" is a top influencer on the Tiger Community, boasting nearly 60,000 followers both domestically and internationally. He is the author of the bestselling book "Investing for Pleasure." Fin++, the official website and app of "Caijiajia," is the only platform officially operated by "Plan Before You Act," adhering to the mission of "helping ordinary investors achieve stable returns" and striving to "become the preferred investment coach for ordinary investors," guiding everyone to plan carefully before acting and find joy in investing.
[MOU Weekly] Lightning Strikes on Rainy Days, What to Do After the Plunge (Week 45 of 2026 | Issue 295)
Last Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.35%, marking its worst day since the tariff war began in April 2025; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%, its worst performance since March 2020; the Nasdaq entered correction territory. On Friday, there was a rebound for the day, but for the week, the S&P was down 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 13%. My own account fell 16.53% on Thursday, the largest single-day drop since the pandemic began. What to do after a crash? First, let’s discuss why decisions shouldn’t be made on the night of a crash, and then if action is necessary, which leg to move first.
[MOU Weekly] Lightning Strikes on Rainy Days, What to Do After the Plunge (Week 45 of 2026 | Issue 295)
Last Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.35%, marking its worst day since the tariff war began in April 2025; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%, its worst performance since March 2020; the Nasdaq entered correction territory. On Friday, there was a rebound for the day, but for the week, the S&P was down 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 13%. My own account fell 16.53% on Thursday, the largest single-day drop since the pandemic began. What to do after a crash? First, let’s discuss why decisions shouldn’t be made on the night of a crash, and then if action is necessary, which leg to move first.
[MOU Weekly] Escape? Or buy the dip? (Week 44 of 2026 | Issue 294)
Last Friday, the Nasdaq fell by 2.86%, marking its worst day since June; it dropped 5.2% for the entire month of October, the worst month since March 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has already seen an intraday drop of over 10% from its high on October 6, marking the third 10% correction this year; the S&P 500 only retraced by 3.1%. Intel fell by 28.6% in one day, the largest drop since 1974.
[MOU Weekly] Premiums are paper, discounts are real (Week 43 of 2026 | Issue 293)
Last week, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 0.8%, marking a second consecutive week of decline. SpaceX rose by 7.8% on Wednesday but dropped by 9.1% on Thursday; Tesla's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet it fell by 3.1% on Thursday. Throughout the week, the fluctuations of these two companies were not dictated by their own fundamentals.  What dictated their ups and downs was a response during the SpaceX earnings call on October 20. When asked about a merger, Musk stated that both companies' boards had established special committees; he is a party with a conflict of interest and cannot participate in discussions, but "I think it's a good idea." He then added that treating the merger as a done deal was an overstatement, as Tesla needs more than half of all outstanding shares to approve it, which is "a pretty high bar." Wall Street did not hear the latter part. The Reuters headline read: "Merger is a matter of time, not if"; the only remaining disagreement is how much premium Tesla shareholders should receive, ranging from zero to 35%. This question was misguided. A merger involves a stock swap; the premium is not cash but SpaceX shares. Tesla shareholders are not being acquired; they are exchanging currency. The real question is how much the shares they receive will be worth.
[MOU Weekly] The Knife of Credit Cuts Those Who Don't Borrow Money (Week 42 of 2026 | Issue No. 292)
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 5.5%, marking its worst week since the tariff storm in April 2025; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since 2008; on Friday, the VIX closed at 20.1, surpassing 20 for the first time since July 29. The cuts started with a bond. On Monday, it hit optical modules, on Tuesday it affected storage, on Wednesday it targeted companies borrowing money to build data centers, and on Friday it impacted software and cybersecurity. By the close, there wasn't a single layer in the AI chain that wasn't affected. However, among those hit, there were a number who had never borrowed money at all.
[MOU Weekly] Interest Expenses Exceed One Trillion, Is the U.S. Government Unable to Continue? (2026, Week 41 | Issue No. 291)
Last Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed at 7818.93 points, setting a new closing record for the first time since August 13, with a weekly gain of 1.2%. On Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction yielded a bid of 5.30%, a 24-year high. On Thursday, the Congressional Budget Office released its accounts for the fiscal year 2026: revenues of $5.40 trillion, expenditures of $7.40 trillion, and a deficit of $1.99 trillion; net interest at $1.14 trillion, which is $227 billion more than defense spending. The deficit accounts for 6.2% of GDP, the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, and there is no war or recession domestically. Maya MacGuineas, head of the budget oversight organization, described this figure as the highest in history, excluding war and recession. Thus, many headlines this week are asking the same question: Can the U.S. government still hold up? First, let's lay out the accounts; the answer is hidden in two lines on the revenue side and two lines on the expenditure side.
[MOU Weekly] Oil Prices, Oil Prices, Still Oil Prices (Week 40 of 2026 | Issue 290)
Last Wednesday, Trump rejected Iran's proposed ceasefire conditions, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2002. Friday's non-farm payrolls only increased by 29,000. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% for the week, the Nasdaq 100 ETF rose 0.7%, and the equal-weighted S&P ETF dropped 0.7%. Every piece of news this week, if traced back, leads to the same barrel of oil. In the five months before the war, the daily fluctuations of the S&P 500 and crude oil moved almost independently, with a correlation coefficient of 0.16. After the war began at the end of February, this number changed to -0.53.
[MOU Weekly] Five Percent Treasury Bonds, Thirty Percent Profit (Week 39 of 2026 | Issue No. 289)
Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 20 basis points, reaching around 5.2%, the highest since 2007. In the same week, the NASDAQ-100 ETF increased by 3.2%. The bond market is sounding the alarm, while the stock market is doing the math. The numbers being calculated are the two figures in the headline: a 5% Treasury yield and a 30% profit.
[MOU Weekly] The Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Can't Produce Memory Modules (Week 38 of 2026 | Issue No. 288)
This week, three things have increased in price. The first is money. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, passing the vote 12 to 0, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The second is memory. According to DigiTimes, Apple has agreed to purchase DRAM at nearly $2 per GB and NAND at $0.33 per GB starting in the first quarter of next year, which is 30% to 40% more expensive than in the third quarter of this year. This is the buyer with the strongest bargaining power in the world. The third is storage stocks. SanDisk rose 11% in a single day on Friday, while Micron increased by 9.6% over two days. According to textbooks, when interest rates rise, stocks with high Beta should be the first to fall; however, the results have been the opposite. In this issue, we will examine these three price tags, one by one.
[MOU Weekly] Earning a little less is a cost, losing a bit more is an accident (Week 37 of 2026 | Issue 287)
In the week of December 17, 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, and Friday was quadruple witching day, mirroring the arrangement of the following week. That rate hike was also already priced in, with the market pricing in a probability of over 70% before the meeting. As a result, the S&P 500 fell 7.05% for the week, and the Nasdaq dropped 8.36%, marking the worst week since 2011.
[MOU Weekly] Where Did the Money Come From to Buy Micron at $1000 (Week 36 of 2026 | Issue 286)
Looking at this chart, most people's first reaction is: Micron has risen again. That's right, on September 4, Micron closed at 1016, up 6.1% for the day. However, this money has little to do with whether the stock price goes up or down. The Micron stock in this account has a cost basis of 1000, and the current price is 1016, meaning the stock price has only moved 1.6% over four months. Over the four months, the account shows a cumulative profit and loss of $101,585 for Micron, with the stock earning $4,680 and options earning $96,905. 95% of the money comes from selling volatility, not from the stock price.
"Plan Before You Act" is a top influencer on the Tiger Community, boasting nearly 60,000 followers both domestically and internationally. He is the author of the bestselling book "Investing for Pleasure." Fin++, the official website and app of "Caijiajia," is the only platform officially operated by "Plan Before You Act," adhering to the mission of "helping ordinary investors achieve stable returns" and striving to "become the preferred investment coach for ordinary investors," guiding everyone to plan carefully before acting and find joy in investing.